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北大教授:日本半导体产业衰落,贸易摩擦不是根本原因
发布时间:2019-07-16 11:59:45
北大教授:日本半导体产业衰落,贸易摩擦不是根本原因
出自:第一财经
日本半导体产业由盛而衰的话题在中国和美国贸易摩擦的跌宕起伏中几度被热议。人们试图透过日本来判断正兴起腾飞的中国电子产业会不会因为贸易摩擦而折戟。

日本半导体产业曾经盛极一时。以DRAM(动态随机存取存储器)为例,1985年日本产品占据全球市场的80%。但之后市场份额一路下滑,到本世纪初降到10%以内。在用于生产芯片的光刻机市场,尼康的行业龙头地位在新世纪也被后起之秀荷兰的ASML所取代。

日本半导体产业走向衰落的转折点正是日美半导体贸易摩擦如火如荼的时候,日美半导体摩擦是日本半导体产业衰退的原因吗?一个产业之所以会衰退,必是其失去了国际竞争力。而在解释为何失去竞争力之前,需先了解日本半导体产业的竞争力是怎么形成的。

相较于欧美发达国家,日本是后来者,因而能够充分享受国际技术扩散的红利。与其他制造行业的成功故事一样,日本半导体产业也是发挥后发优势,通过引进美国的关键技术发展起来的。不同的是,在钢铁、机械、家电和汽车行业发展时期,产业技术是成熟的,日本企业不需要过多的技术研发,就可以利用引进的技术、设备直接生产终端产品。

既然技术是成熟的,产品创新就成为行业竞争的关键。为了进入国际市场,努力降低成本是不二之选。于是,日本企业发展的基本模式是,一方面不断推进产品创新,在产品性能和质量上形成竞争优势;另一方面努力实施生产技术和组织方式创新,形成生产成本上的竞争优势。质优价廉成为日本制造和日本产品的标签。

到了半导体时代,情况不同了。受摩尔定律支配,半导体技术进步飞速。往往一项技术还未成熟就被新技术所替代,企业只有在正确的技术发展方向上迅速完成通用技术研发和产品开发,才能站稳市场。没有成熟的技术供引进,日本企业的产品创新陷入困境。怎么解决这个难题的呢?这需要提到一个为业界熟知的故事——日本超大规模集成电路(VSLI)技术的联合研发。

1976年,日本通产省(现在的经产省)精心挑选了5家半导体行业的龙头企业,富士通、NEC、日立、东芝和三菱电机,与其下属的电子技术综合研究所组成联合研究小组,共同开发超大规模集成电路的通用技术,研究成果供5家企业使用。政府牵头进行联合研究的好处是避免企业从事重复研究,这样一来就降低了单个企业研发成本,从而提高企业竞争力。

对于半导体产业而言,政府支持通用技术的研发填补了日本企业在技术创新上的先天不足。有了VSLI的通用技术,日本企业就可以娴熟地发挥其产品创新和生产技术创新优势,快速推出质优价廉的半导体产品。但政府参与降低了企业从事基础研究和技术创新的动力,使得日本企业侧重产品创新和成本控制的经营模式固化。

再来看另一个故事,这次的主角是美国政府和企业。上世纪90年代,生产芯片的光刻技术在193 nm(纳米)制程上遭遇瓶颈。当时的行业巨头尼康和ASML分头实行了技术方向不同的产品创新。最终,ASML在工程上稍作改动轻松突破瓶颈,完胜尼康。

与此同时,美国半导体巨头英特尔公司另辟蹊径,探索新的光刻技术——极紫外光刻技术(EUV)。英特尔与美国能源部牵头,发起了EUV LLC联盟,集合摩托罗拉、AMD等行业巨头与美国三大国际实验室的几百名科学家,共同研究EUV技术。ASML因为有美国资本背景,被纳入联盟,尼康则被排除在外。从1997年到2003年,研究联盟的科学家们发表了众多学术论文,验证了EUV光刻机的可行性。有意思的是,将EUV推向市场的不是研究发起者Intel,而是荷兰的ASML。2015年可量产的EUV光刻机下线后,ASML进一步巩固其光刻机行业龙头地位。

美国政府及科学家参与的基础研究极大推进了光刻技术的进步和半导体产业的发展,这体现了美国在基础科学和关键技术上的垄断优势。日本的优势是技术应用和产品创新,在没有基础研究和应用技术为依托的情况下,产品创新的优势体现不出来。尼康不敌ASML,正是这个缘故。

第二个故事的另一个不同是,研究结果并不是直接服务美国企业。美国半导体巨头和政府机构完成基础研究,荷兰公司ASML利用该技术投资生产EUV光刻机,中国台湾半导体龙头企业台积电购买EUV光刻机进行芯片生产,这种分工方式反映了半导体产业生产方式的变化。因为半导体技术突飞猛进,产品不断更新换代,成本下降快、幅度大,没有任何一家企业能够兼任产品的基础研发、系统设计和生产制造。即便技术上可行,也很难做到每个环节的产出都具备价格优势。

随着产品设计与生产趋于模块化,半导体产业的设计与生产活动出现分离。如微软、英特尔、高通以及Apple公司等都是系统设计公司,ASML只是设备制造商,台积电则是芯片加工企业等。这种分离一方面要求行业内企业之间密切的水平协作,另一方面要求链条上的每一个企业通过高投资、大规模生产和全球供应维持其在细分行业的竞争力。日本大企业所擅长的成本控制是基于全生产链的一体化模式,在半导体产业的水平分工模式下无用武之地。产品创新和成本控制的优势发挥不出来,日本产品也就失去了质优价廉的竞争力。

上世纪80年代后期开始逐渐取代日本半导体产品的并非半导体摩擦的发起国——美国的产品,而是韩国和中国台湾的半导体产品。这表明日本产品虽有性能优势,但已不足以胜出上述两地产品的成本优势。日美贸易摩擦对日本半导体产业的冲击不是根本性的,根本原因还在于日本企业的竞争模式不适应半导体产业的发展趋势。

一个产业走向衰落必定是它形成竞争力的源泉或条件消失了,只有当贸易冲突恰好破坏了产业竞争力的条件时,贸易摩擦才可能是元凶。中国和美国贸易摩擦是否影响中国电子产业的发展,取决于它是否会破坏中国电子产业竞争力的源泉。 

 
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